The Future

Rural Urban Development

By 2030, the State will be hosting between two and three million more people, a 25 to 30 percent rise in the current numbers. Some of that will come from internal growth in the population, but much of it will come from inward migration, largely for retirement (especially in the coast and the mountains) and for work (mainly around the large urban centers). A further generation in time (50 years from now) will see that population rising by another two million for the same reasons.

Clearly, if we are to sustain our agricultural and forestry capability, not to speak of our quality of life, development has to be contained largely within the current urban boundaries. At the present time development in terms of its use of space in urban settings is very inefficient and the potential for “infilling” and re-use of space is considerable. Sprawl not only removes more land from agricultural and forestry production, but it also puts increasing strain on expensive services. Those living close to services, within a tight urban area effectively subsidize those living at a distance from schools, fire, police and shops.

As energy costs rise, there will also be greater incentive to build more compact housing, with high levels of energy efficiency probably up to current Scandinavian standards. Those who can afford larger houses on larger lots should expect to pay more for the services they receive, so making sprawl less attractive to encourage. North Carolina has more than adequate space to accommodate the projected increase in population and to host commercial activity within the existing city boundaries, so creating more efficient, compact communities. New developments will be better designed in ways that give occupants more of an impression of space and quality with extensive urban planting and orientation of buildings to take advantage of green areas, natural light and screening from noise.